In some of my writings on the ME on Frank’s site I made the unhappy prediction that the Palestinians would descend into a civil war. Current events seem to be proving my prediction correct. I do not know how it will all end. It seems certain that Hamas will control Gaza, but I’m not confident that Fatah will control the West Bank. I expect Hamas to try and defeat Fatah altogether.
Unfortunately many people think that Israeli occupation has made the Palestinians desperate. I disagree. The actions of the Palestinians during the 20’s and 30’s indicates the ease at which they use violence to solve political problems. I believe the Israelis had to occupy Palestinian territory because of the propensity of a significant minority of Palestinians and Arabs to seek to destroy a Jewish presence in the region. The majority of Palestinians may be moderate, but it is not in the nature of moderates to use the gun, thus they are always victim of gun-weilding extremists. The current situation is a logical outcome of the use of political violence by the Palestinians.
It goes without saying that Isreal cannot accept a Hamas victory, but what I have not yet read in the analysis is that Egypt cannot afford a Hamas victory either. It is not impossible to conceive of Egypt attacking Gaza – it used to be under Egyptian control anyway. The reason is simple. Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and the MB has caused many problems for Egypt. Egypt cannot allow Hamas to control Gaza because they will use it to train insurgents who will seek to overthrow the Egyptian government.
There is now an even greater possibility that the whole ME (and Islamic world) will begin to implode as the Hamas/Fatah conflict causes Muslims to polarize and to take sides.
In recent years I have come to believe that an independent Palestinian state would quickly become a failed state. It seems it will fail before it even begins. Make no mistake, this is what Hamas wants. Their objective has always been to establish an Islamist foothold and start an Islamist wildfire in the ME. It was never really concerned about Palestinian nationalism.
In order to have an integral view of this issue and, given the predictive gifts of this blogger, read the following debate:
http://www.integralworld.net/meyerhoff7.html
Indeed, and as DePayens will no doubt know Meyerhoff and I had an open debate about this at integralworld, so anyone interested ought to read the full exchange, including the reply where I rebut the linked response.
The overnight news is that Hamas now has control of Gaza.
Interesting that Christopher Hitchens adds a note that supports my concerns in ‘God is not Great’. I’ll quote the full paragraph.
“The forces of Hamas, who claim the whole of Palestine as an Islamic waqf or holy dispensation sacred to Islam, have begun to elbow aside the Christians of Bethlehem (in the West Bank – my words). Their leader, Mahmoud al-Zahar, has announced that all inhabitants of the Islamic state of Palestine will be expected to conform to Muslim law. In Bethlehem, it is now proposed that non-Muslims be subjected to the al-Jeziya tax, the historic levy placed on dhimmis or unbelievers under the old Ottoman Empire. Female employees of the municipality are forbidden to greet male visitors with a handshake. In Gaza, a young woman named Yusra al-Azami was shot dead in April 2005, for the crime of sitting unchaperoned in a car with her fiance. The young man escaped with only a vicious beating. The leaders of Hamas ‘vice and virtue’ squad justified this casual murder and torture by saying there had been ’suspicion of immoral behaviour’. In once secular Palestine, mobs of sexually repressed young men are conscripted to snoop around cars, and given permission to do what they like.”
Hitchens goes on to say that the Israel/Palestine conflict is soluble, but “and so it would have been, decades ago, if the messianic rabbis and mullahs and priests could have been kept out of it.”
Anyway, prepare for the news to get worse.
I would also suggest that the conflict in Gaza was an inevitable consequence of Hamas’s totalitarian ambitions. Please note that Israel left the Gaza strip and that many Palestinians hoped that it would become a model of self-rule. LOL. The abscence of Israel simply allowed the competing militias to try and take control.
Perhaps the Israelis should leave the West Bank immediately? What would happen then?
Well, You may know Dr. Beck quate:
“No more prizes for forecasting the rain; only prizes for building the ark.”
Please support this effort
http://www.humanemergencemiddleeast.org/open-letter-to-Tony-Blair.php
Open Letter to Tony Blair from the Young Men and Women of Palestine
“It is Our Future After All!”
Dear Mr. Blair,
We are the young men and women of Palestine.
We write to you from our Palestinian home that is in transition, wanting to seize the moment to co-create a successful Palestinian state.
We are the Future; we wish to participate in shaping our future!
We are young, educated, forward thinking, and globally-minded men and women. We hold advanced degrees in Engineering, Information Technology, Sciences, Law and the Humanities.
We need a partner in the world community who will give us a chance to show our leadership.
We know that you, Mr. Blair, do not subscribe to the perception that all young Palestinians are blinded by ideologies or a limited vision of Palestine.
We are very keen on initiating an international dialogue with an overarching vision and overarching goals.
We want to lead an accelerated process towards peace, one that guarantees for both Palestinians and Israelis their rights and their future.
We extend our invitation to young Israelis to work with us towards the common good, and to build with us the bridge needed for true peace.
We would like to bring to the world’s attention that a new generation of young Palestinians has emerged and is connected to the world through Google, Yahoo!, Facebook, MySpace, etc.
We would like to bring to the world’s attention that our worldview represents the majority in Palestine, despite the media and the international community’s attention on radical behavior. (For every helpless, angry or misguided Palestinian brother or sister, there are thousands of us who are holding the hands of our fellow Palestinians to forge forward towards a successful Palestine. )
We are ready to serve as a conduit to wide scale change and make positive systemic contributions to our culture, our educational and legal systems, government and social institutions.
We believe in capacity building and empowering Palestinians to move from where they are now to where they need to be.
We can serve as a bridge between Western culture and Arab culture.
We believe in building a Palestinian model for societal development that is culture-appropriate to our Palestinian values and we can deliver the concepts of indigenous democracy in ways that our people can accept and embrace
We can co-lead an international dialogue about Peace. Most importantly our unique contribution will be to translate the outcome of the bi-lateral agreements and accords in a way that our culture can embrace.
We aim to produce positive responses to any accord that focuses on building a healthy Palestinian state. We want to avoid the failures of the the Oslo Accord, where our leaders did not communicate the desired outcome to us and our people. The decisions made unilaterally by a disengaged leadership came as a shock to an unprepared culture that rejected a premature deal.
We are mindful of the breakdown in communication between our leadership and our people, especially with the youth.
We can form that link to translate international decisions into local implementations.
We ask you to deal with new faces and young people. As you interact with our formal leadership, we need you to encourage the inclusion of our positive voices. We will work very well with people in leadership positions whose expertise and strategic thinking are well respected.
We want to be a free Palestine, that is our goal!!
We know that as prerequisites to Palestinian Statehood we need to achieve the following:
Build healthy institutions for a well functioning governement
Build capacity in our people to enable them to take Palestine to the 21st century
Address holistically the psycho-social problems inside the Palestinian communities caused by decades of conflict.
Build sound economic, educational, judiciary, religious and healthcare systems for a well-functioning society.
We are dedicated to a democratic Palestine and to an accelerated process leading to true democracy.
We are gathering the hearts and minds of Palestinians towards a common goal and shared values: To build Palestine and make it succeed in the 21 st century
We know that as Palestinians we have a unique opportunity to build bridges, cross over divides, create common purpose and take the leadership role, not just in Palestine but in the entire Middle East, and not just here, but around the world. We want to stand tall, accept the challenge, point the way, challenge others and frame a new Palestine.
WE come from Ramallah, Nablus, al khalil, Bethlehem, Jenin, Gaza, Jerusalem, Jericho, Beit Sahour, Qalquiliya ….WE ARE PALESTINE
It is Our Future After All …. It is the time to give us a chance.
Sincerely,
Young Integral Palestinian Leaders
July 1, 2007
Nafiz Rifae: Chaiman of Alumni BU Graduates Union-Bethlehem
Deema Al-Shawa: UNDP Consultant-Ramallah
Louai Quaddumi: HD-Vision Broadcasting & Media Services –Ramallah
Maysa Gayyusi: UNRWA consultant-Ramallah
Ayman Abu-Arkub: – Network Design & Security- Al Khalil
Shadi Washah: Marketing & Computer Science/ AlQuds Open Univ. (student)
Iyass Aouni S.: Computer Science, Palestine Polytechnic University (student)
Murad Saoud S.: Business Administration/ Palestine Polytechnic University (student)
Suleiman Khalil S.: Psychology & Education/ Hebron Univ. (student)
Nidal Sharha: Psychology & Education/Hebron Univ. (student)
Issa A. Suwayti: Accounting/AlQuds Open Univ. (student)
Reem Jalayta : English Teacher-Jericho
Mustafa Al Taweel: Technology/Bir Zeit University
Qassam Al-Bargouthi Business Administration/Bir Zeit Univ
Good luck, I wish you well.